Viendo archivo del sábado, 26 junio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jun 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 177 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 JUN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8598 (N23E02)
PRODUCED AN M2/2N AT 0512Z. THE GROUP CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
REGION ON THE DISK AND PRODUCED ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8602 (N17E35) IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE LOOKING WITH
BRIGHT, FLUCTUATING PLAGE BUT COULD ONLY PRODUCE A SUBFLARE. REGION
8596 (N22W12) WAS ALSO ACTIVE A CONTRIBUTED A C4/1N FLARE AT 1650Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8598 AND 8602 ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN ACTIVITY
CENTERS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAJOR
FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8598.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN AT THE
ACE SPACECRAFT AT 0215Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF
MODERATELY NEGATIVE SOUTHWARD INTERPLANETARY FIELD. A 16 NT SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 0326Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. A SECOND SHOCK WAS SEEN
AT ACE AT 1925Z, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 2020Z
WHICH MEASURED 38 NT IN BOULDER. AS OF FORECAST FILE TIME THE
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD WAS ORIENTED NORTHWARDS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
NATURE OF THE PLASMA AND FIELDS BEHIND THE 20/1925Z SHOCK AT ACE IS
CURRENTLY UNKNOWN AND COULD BE GEOEFFECTIVE. THEREFORE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AN
INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE THIRD DAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF 24/1200Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 JUN a 29 JUN
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 JUN 200 Previsto 27 JUN-29 JUN 205/205/205 Media de 90 Días 26 JUN 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN 002/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN 014/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN 010/012-010/012-015/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 JUN a 29 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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