Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 junio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jun 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 JUN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. DEPARTED REGION 8569
(N18W98) PRODUCED AN M3 AT 17/1730Z. THE BIG BEAR OBSERVATORY
PROVIDED CONFIRMATION OF THE SOURCE REGION. A TYPE II WITH VELOCITY
NEAR 600 KM/S AND MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT.
THE MAUNA LOA GROUND-BASED CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED A FAINT CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8569 ALSO PRODUCED A C5 WITH AN
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AT 17/0036Z. SMALL REGIONS 8590 (S21W14) AND
8591 (N12E15) EMERGED ON THE DISK. REGION 8590 EMERGED SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF EXISTING REGION 8588 (S22W05).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN M-CLASS
EVENT DURING THAT PERIOD FROM CURRENT DISK REGIONS AND PREVIOUSLY
ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB. DEPARTED
REGION 8569 WILL BECOME LESS OF A THREAT AS IT ROTATES FARTHER
BEYOND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 JUN a 20 JUN
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 JUN 147 Previsto 18 JUN-20 JUN 150/152/154 Media de 90 Días 17 JUN 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN 007/008-010/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 JUN a 20 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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