Viendo archivo del sábado, 29 mayo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 May 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 149 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 MAY 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1 X-RAY FLARE WITH
MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND A TYPE II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 29/0304Z. A CME
OBSERVED AT THE SAME TIME SUGGEST THE EVENT ORIGINATED ON THE SE
LIMB. REGION 8552 (N18W06) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. SPOTS IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF REGION 8557 (S28E48) APPEAR TO BE A SEPARATE
BIPOLE, THUS WERE NUMBERED AS REGION 8560 (S23E50). NEW REGION 8561
(N22E18) WAS ALSO NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS AND AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8522 OR THE REGION
8557/8560 COMPLEX IN THE SE QUADRANT,
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE TREND WILL BE FOR MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A
GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION. INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THE
IMPRESSIVE HALO/CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON THE 27TH LIKELY
ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE LIMB - NO GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENT.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 MAY a 01 JUN
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 MAY 149 Previsto 30 MAY-01 JUN 155/155/160 Media de 90 Días 29 MAY 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAY 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAY 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAY-01 JUN 012/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 MAY a 01 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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