Viendo archivo del martes, 20 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 110 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. REGIONS
8517 (N22W77) AND 8518 (S15E29) PRODUCED ISOLATED B-CLASS SUBFLARES,
BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SIZE OR STRUCTURE. THE
REMAINING SPOT GROUPS WERE SMALL, STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE, AND STABLE.
NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8518 APPEARS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE
PRODUCTION.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT ALL
LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE
FIRST DAY, THEN DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 APR a 23 APR
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 APR 105 Previsto 21 APR-23 APR 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 20 APR 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 APR 010/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR 022/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR 020/030-010/010-007/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 APR a 23 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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