Viendo archivo del martes, 16 marzo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Mar 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 075 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 MAR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8485 (N23W39) REMAINED A LARGE F-TYPE GROUP WITH MIXED POLARITIES
AND SHOWED AN OVERALL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE APPARENT IN ITS SIZE OR STRUCTURE. IT PRODUCED AN
IMPULSIVE M1/1F AT 16/0635UT ALONG WITH SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
ALL OF THESE FLARES WERE WEAK IN RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8487
(N16W02) PRODUCED ISOLATED B-CLASS SUBFLARES AND SHOWED NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A 16-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN NEAR S35W32,
DISAPPEARED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS A CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISAPPEARANCE, BUT IT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED. NEW
REGION 8489 (N13W28) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8485 AND 8487 APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS
FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION
8485.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. HOWEVER, ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS IN RESPONSE TO RECENT
CME OCCURRENCES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 MAR a 19 MAR
| Clase M | 50% | 45% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 MAR 156 Previsto 17 MAR-19 MAR 155/150/145 Media de 90 Días 16 MAR 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR 011/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR 012/010-015/012-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 MAR a 19 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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