Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 febrero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Feb 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 050 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 FEB 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. JUST ISOLATED, SMALL, C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED, AS THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE REGIONS ON THE DISK
WAS THAT OF DECAY. EIGHT SPOTTED REGIONS ARE VISIBLE, THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE BEING 8458 (S23W61). THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE PAST 24
HOURS. MAJOR STORMING WHICH BEGAN EARLY YESTERDAY HAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDED. THE RADIAL SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL IN EXCESS OF 500
KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ROSE TO HIGH
LEVELS MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT
REACHES QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAY 2. THE LAST DAY OF THE
INTERVAL MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AGAIN AS A HIGH SPEED
STREAM FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE IS DUE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 FEB a 22 FEB
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 FEB 164 Previsto 20 FEB-22 FEB 160/155/150 Media de 90 Días 19 FEB 147
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB 041/054 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB 035/035 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB 015/020-005/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 FEB a 22 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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