Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 febrero 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 048 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 FEB 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES MADE UP THE DAY'S ACTIVITY, THE LARGEST BEING AN UNOBSERVED C6 AT 2029Z.REGION 8462 (N20W27) HAD THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED FLARE ACTIVITY, WITH ITS LARGEST A C5/1N WITH TYPE II SWEEP AT 16/2121Z. REGION 8458 (S23W36) HAD ONLY A FEW C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8457 (N15W42), ALTHOUGH QUIET, REMAINS BRIGHT IN H-ALPHA. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8457, 8458 AND 8462 RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. A TRANSIENT STRUCTURE WAS SEEN TO PASS ACE AROUND 0500Z, WITH ELEVATED SPEED AND PROLONGED SOUTHWARD BZ. CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE STABILIZED WITH NOMINAL CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING. THIS TRANSIENT MAY BE AN EFFECT OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON FEBRUARY 12.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR EPISODES OF ELEVATED ACTIVITY IN THE FIRST TWO DAYS, DUE TO SOLAR ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8458 EARLY ON FEBRUARY 16.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 FEB a 20 FEB
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 FEB 190
  Previsto   18 FEB-20 FEB  185/175/165
  Media de 90 Días        17 FEB 146
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 FEB  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 FEB  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 FEB-20 FEB  015/010-015/010-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 FEB a 20 FEB
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%30%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%50%40%
Tormenta Menor25%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

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