Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 febrero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Feb 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 045 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 FEB 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A LONG-DURATION
M1/SF FLARE PEAKING AT 14/1045UT IN REGION 8457 (N15W03). THIS
REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. C-CLASS ACTIVITY ALSO
OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8456 (N23W22), 8458 (S22E03), AND 8462 (N20E07).
RAPID EMERGENCE OF NEW FLUX IS OCCURRING IN REGION 8459 (S30W30), AN
AREA WHICH HAD BEEN SPOTLESS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST PROBABLE FLARE PRODUCERS ARE REGIONS 8456,
8457, 8458, AND 8462. REGION 8459 MAY ALSO BEGIN TO FLARE IF
EMERGENCE CONTINUES. REGIONS 8457 AND 8462 HAVE THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 FEB a 17 FEB
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 FEB 205 Previsto 15 FEB-17 FEB 210/215/215 Media de 90 Días 14 FEB 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 FEB a 17 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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