Viendo archivo de martes, 26 enero 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 026 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 JAN 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN IMPULSIVE C7/1N FROM REGION 8447 (N19W72) AT 26/1844Z THAT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8447 IS A SMALL SPOT GROUP VERY NEAR PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE REGION 8444 (N19W66). REGION 8444 EXHIBITED DECAY DURING THE PERIOD. RECENT MAGNETIC DATA SHOW SOME MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS IN THIS SMALL COMPLEX OF REGIONS. A MODERATE DURATION C5 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 26/1121Z. AN OBSERVER REPORTED FAINT CORONAL RAIN BEHIND THE WEST LIMB AT SW25 NEAR THE END OF THIS X-RAY FLARE. IT IS LIKELY THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM REGION 8439 WHICH IS ONE DAY BEYOND THE WEST LIMB AT THAT LATITUDE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT PREDOMINANTLY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH REGIONS 8444 AND 8447 PRODUCING OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. VERY LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON 29 JAN WHEN THESE REGIONS ROTATE OFF THE DISK. A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N31 AT THE CENTRAL MERIDIAN COULD ERUPT DURING ITS DISK TRANSIT. A LONG DURATION C OR M-CLASS EVENT WITH A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION COULD RESULT SHOULD THE ERUPTION OCCUR. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES CONTINUED TO DECREASE. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT CONTINUED TO DECLINE AND WAS VERY NEAR BACKGROUND LEVEL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 JAN a 29 JAN
Clase M20%20%05%
Clase X10%05%01%
Protón10%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 JAN 133
  Previsto   27 JAN-29 JAN  123/118/112
  Media de 90 Días        26 JAN 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JAN  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JAN  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JAN-29 JAN  010/010-010/008-010/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 JAN a 29 JAN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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