Viendo archivo de lunes, 25 enero 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 025 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 JAN 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8444 (N20W51) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M2/SN AT 25/0056Z WITH MODERATE RADIO BURSTS IN THE 245-606 MHZ RANGE. THIS EVENT WAS PRECEDED BY A LONG DURATION C3/SF AT 25/0012Z FROM REGION 8444. THIS EVENT PRODUCED A MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE II RADIO BURST. REGION 8444 ALSO PRODUCED A C8/SF AT 25/1407Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED SLIGHT GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD. ITS FLARE PRODUCTION RATE BELIES ITS SMALL SIZE AND RELATIVE STABILITY IN WHITE LIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THERE ARE MIXED POLARITIES IN THIS REGION BUT THE LACK OF MAGNETOGRAPH DATA PREVENTED VERIFICATION. REGIONS 8439 (S23W93) AND 8440 (N19W87) MAY HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 8444 IS OBVIOUSLY CAPABLE OF GENERATING OCCASIONAL SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS. HOWEVER, ANY SIMPLIFICATION IN THIS SMALL REGION COULD RESULT IN THE CESSATION OF FLARE PRODUCTION. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS FLARES. THIS IS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE FORESHORTENING OF THESE REGIONS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE BACKGROUND. THE FORBUSH DECREASE THAT BEGAN ON 23 JAN CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECOVER.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A THIN TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE THAT PASSED CENTRAL MERIDIAN ON 24 JAN.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 JAN a 28 JAN
Clase M45%30%20%
Clase X10%05%05%
Protón10%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 JAN 138
  Previsto   26 JAN-28 JAN  125/120/118
  Media de 90 Días        25 JAN 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JAN  011/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JAN  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JAN-28 JAN  008/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 JAN a 28 JAN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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