Viendo archivo del viernes, 22 enero 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 022 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 JAN 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8440 (N19W50) PRODUCED AN M1/SF EVENT AT 22/1724Z. REGION 8440 AND REGION 8439 (S23W57) HAVE MAINTAINED BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS WITH APPROXIMATELY 28 SPOTS IN EACH REGION. REGION 8444 (N19W14) HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND HAS SHOWN SLIGHT GROWTH FROM A CSO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH 7 SPOTS TO A DSO-BETA GROUP WITH 10 SPOTS. NEW REGION 8447 (N19W20) IS A CSO-BETA GROUP WITH 6 SPOTS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 EACH STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTELD. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 22/1500-1800Z PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS STAYED ENHANCED, BUT REMAINED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD. A WEAK SHOCK WAS SEEN AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AT 22/2000Z AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOLAR ACTIVITY ON 20 JANUARY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED, OR INCREASE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 JAN a 25 JAN
Clase M50%50%40%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 JAN 178
  Previsto   23 JAN-25 JAN  180/178/175
  Media de 90 Días        22 JAN 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN  014/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 JAN a 25 JAN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%15%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%20%
Tormenta Menor30%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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