Viendo archivo de miércoles, 20 enero 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 020 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 JAN 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. A LONG DURATION M-5 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 20/2003Z. THE SOURCE OF THIS EVENT IS SUSPECTED TO BE FROM JUST BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB DUE TO A CME REPORTED BY THE MAUNA LOA SOLAR OBSERVATORY. A TYPE IV, AND A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SHOCK SPEED OF 800 KM/S WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. AN 230 SFU TENFLARE WAS ALSO DETECTED. REGIONS 8439 (S23W29) AND 8440 (N19W25) CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8442 (N24W55) HAS DECAYED FROM 11 SPOTS WITH A BETA-GAMMA DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION DOWN TO 7 SPOTS AND A MORE SIMPLE BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. ANOTHER ISOLATED EVENT COULD OCCUR FROM THE REGION JUST BEHIND THE NORTH EAST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10MEV AS A RESULT OF TODAY'S M5 X-RAY EVENT. IF THE EVENT DOES OCCUR, PROTONS ARE EXPECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 JAN a 23 JAN
Clase M60%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 JAN 172
  Previsto   21 JAN-23 JAN  178/185/185
  Media de 90 Días        20 JAN 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN  012/012-012/014-012/014
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 JAN a 23 JAN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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