Viendo archivo del jueves, 31 diciembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Dec 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 365 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 DEC 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8421
(N27W27) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES. ALTHOUGH IT
SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, IT REMAINED A LARGE GROUP WITH A
COMPACT SPOT DISTRIBUTION AND STRONG MAGNETIC GRADIENTS. REGION 8419
(N28W79) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB.
THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL AND STABLE. NEW REGION 8427
(N16W62) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8421 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES DURING
THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS
REGION.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 JAN a 03 JAN
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 DEC 175 Previsto 01 JAN-03 JAN 170/165/165 Media de 90 Días 31 DEC 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 DEC 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 DEC 003/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JAN-03 JAN 007/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 JAN a 03 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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