Viendo archivo del domingo, 22 noviembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 326 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 NOV 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8384
(S26W88) PRODUCED TWO X-CLASS FLARES AS IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB.
THE FIRST WAS AN X3/1N AT 22/0642UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 340 SFU
TENFLARE, A SIGNIFICANT TYPE II RADIO SWEEP, A MINOR TYPE IV RADIO
SWEEP AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THE SECOND FLARE WAS AN
X2/2N AT 22/1623UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM AND
MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THIS SUDDEN INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS
WAS SURPRISING GIVEN THE STABILITY EXHIBITED BY REGION 8384 DURING
RECENT DAYS. A OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT
22/1839UT. THE REMAINING REGIONS APPEARED STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. REGION 8384 APPEARS
CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES TO ROTATE
OUT OF VIEW. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO LOW TO MODERATE
LEVELS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A SOLAR
PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT WAS DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHONOUS ALTITUDE
FOLLOWING TODAY'S X3/1N FLARE. THE GT 100 MEV PROTON FLUX BECAME
ENHANCED AROUND 22/0700UT, THEN RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS BY
22/1200UT. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX BECAME ENHANCED AROUND
22/0800UT AND WAS GRADUALLY DECLINING TOWARD BACKGROUND LEVELS AT
THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GT 10
MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND
LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY, BARRING ANOTHER PROTON FLARE FROM
REGION 8384.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 NOV a 25 NOV
| Clase M | 70% | 50% | 30% |
| Clase X | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 NOV 126 Previsto 23 NOV-25 NOV 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 22 NOV 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV 004/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV 012/009-015/009-015/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 NOV a 25 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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