Viendo archivo del martes, 17 noviembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 321 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 NOV 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8383 (S14W43) PRODUCED
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT: A C4/SF AT 16/2153Z. ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS EVENTS TODAY WERE A C4 AT 16/2316Z, AND A C2
THAT LASTED 92 MINUTES FROM 0351-0523Z. REGION 8384 (S27W23)
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS STABLE. TWO
FILAMENT ERUPTIONS WERE NOTED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS: A 12 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR N31E20 BETWEEN 16/1842-17/0643Z AND AN 11 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S41W50 BETWEEN 17/1723-17/1857Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS ATTAINED HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE SECOND DAY, WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE INCREASE IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO
MOSTLY UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 NOV a 20 NOV
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 NOV 121 Previsto 18 NOV-20 NOV 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 17 NOV 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV 025/030-025/035-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 NOV a 20 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 55% | 55% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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