Viendo archivo de sábado, 14 noviembre 1998

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 NOV 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8385 (N21W69) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE LARGEST A C5/SF AT 13/2059Z. REGION 8383 (S15E02) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 14/1441Z. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 14/0210Z. ANOTHER OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 14/0508Z AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. THE PROBABLE SOURCE FOR THIS EVENT WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO FROM BEHIND THE DISK IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAS LIKELY FROM REGION 8375 WHICH MADE ITS TRANSIT BEHIND THE DISK A COUPLE DAYS AGO. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8387 (N22E46) AND REGION 8388 (N23E55).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8383 AND 8385 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C AND M-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE GT 10 MEV AND GT 100 MEV PROTONS REACHED EVENT LEVEL TODAY. THE GT 10 MEV STARTED AT 14/0810Z WITH A MAXIMUM OF 300 PFU AT 14/1245Z. THE GT 100 MEV STARTED AT 14/0755Z WITH A MAXIMUM 6.1 PFU AT 14/0950Z. BOTH EVENTS REMAIN IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PROBABLE CAUSE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY WAS THE PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 09 NOV. THE GT 10 MEV AND GT 100 MEV EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVEL BY THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 NOV a 17 NOV
Clase M50%40%40%
Clase X10%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 NOV 127
  Previsto   15 NOV-17 NOV  120/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        14 NOV 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV  036/060
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV  030/040
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV  010/012-010/010-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 NOV a 17 NOV
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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