Viendo archivo del viernes, 6 noviembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 310 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 NOV 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE WITH A 1B/M1 FLARE FROM
REGION 8375 (N18W35) AT 1511UT. THERE WAS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE
ENERGETIC PROTON LEVEL OF GT 10 MEV, BUT DENSITIES DID NOT PASS THE
THRESHOLD OF 10 SFU.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO MINOR STORM. NEAR THE START
OF THE UT DAY A SOLAR WIND STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTIAL
HALO REPORTED ON 2 NOV ARRIVED AT EARTH AND CAUSED AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORM STRENGTH. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NASA GODDARD
REPORTED A FULL HALO CME WHICH OCCURRED AT 05/1945UT. THIS IS THE
FOURTH REPORTED CME IN THREE DAYS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OF THIS PERIOD.
THE REMAINING DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM DUE
TO A REPORTED FULL-HALO CME ON 04/0418UT AND 05/0241.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 NOV a 09 NOV
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 NOV 141 Previsto 07 NOV-09 NOV 145/140/140 Media de 90 Días 06 NOV 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 NOV 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 NOV 018/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 NOV-09 NOV 015/025-040/035-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 NOV a 09 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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