Viendo archivo del domingo, 18 octubre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Oct 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 291 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 OCT 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE WHEN REGION 8358
(N15W69) PRODUCED A M2/1N FLARE AT 18/0145Z. THIS REGION BECAME VERY
ACTIVE DURING A GROWTH PERIOD THAT BEGAN WITH A C9/1F AT 17/1851Z
AND ENDED AT 18/0538Z, PRODUCING ONE M-CLASS AND FIVE C-CLASS
FLARES. ACTIVITY FROM THIS, AND ALL OTHER REGIONS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW
SINCE. NEW REGIONS 8365 (S28E10) AND 8366 (S16E35) WERE NUMBERED
TODAY BRINGING THE TOTAL TO NINE SPOT GROUPS VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8358 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FURTHER C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND STILL
HAS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR
STORMING IN RESPONSE TO THE CME ON 15 OCT.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 OCT a 21 OCT
| Clase M | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 OCT 126 Previsto 19 OCT-21 OCT 130/130/135 Media de 90 Días 18 OCT 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 OCT 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT 025/030-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 OCT a 21 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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