Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 septiembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Sep 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 263 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 SEP 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8340 (N19E38)
PRODUCED AN M1 FLARE AT 19/0251Z. A STRONG TYPE IV SWEEP AND 340 SFU
TENFLARE ACCOMPANIED THIS FLARE. REGION 8336 (S29W02) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 19/0949Z AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
REGION 8342 (N18E25) WAS ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXHIBITING
FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS WHILE PRODUCING SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGIONS 8336 AND 8340 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS
FLARE. REGION 8342 IS STILL DEVELOPING AND MAY SOON BE CAPABLE OF
C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS AT
MOSTLY HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 SEP a 23 SEP
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 SEP 132 Previsto 21 SEP-23 SEP 135/135/140 Media de 90 Días 20 SEP 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 SEP 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 SEP 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 SEP-23 SEP 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 SEP a 23 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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