Viendo archivo del lunes, 24 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 236 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8307 (N31E10)
PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 24/1525Z. REGION 8307 CONTINUED ITS DECLINE IN
WHITE LIGHT AREA AND BECAME MORE BIPOLAR MAGNETICALLY. PENUMBRAL
DECAY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION CAUSED THE DELTA
CONFIGURATION TO FADE. REGION 8309 (N16W38) GREW SLIGHTLY AND
EXHIBITED MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8307 RETAINS THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT
POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING AS THE REGION DECAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DECREASED TO APPROXIMATELY 430 KM/S FROM A HIGH OF NEAR 600 KM/S ON
23 AUG. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT CONTINUED TO
DECAY SLOWLY. FLUXES WERE NEAR 1 PFU.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 25-26 AUG IN
RESPONSE TO AN M9 FLARE AND SUSPECTED CME EARLY ON 22 AUG. DURING
THE DISTURBANCE, MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
THE FIELD SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED ON 27 AUG AS THE
DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. THE PROTON ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECLINE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 AUG a 27 AUG
| Clase M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 AUG 121 Previsto 25 AUG-27 AUG 120/120/120 Media de 90 Días 24 AUG 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 AUG 014/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 AUG 010/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 AUG-27 AUG 025/027-025/025-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 AUG a 27 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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