Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 231 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. AN X4.9 OCCURRED AT
18/2210 AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8307 (N32E72). AN M2.3 AT
19/1222 AND M3.0 AT 19/1404 WERE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION.
THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE X- AND M-CLASS
FLARES.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE
TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS REGION 8307 MOVES TOWARDS THE
CENTER OF THE DISK.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM AT
HIGHER LATITUDES. CORONAL HOLES ARE MOVING INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE
LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS REGION 8307 (N32E72)
ROTATES TO THE CENTER OF THE DISK, ERUPTIONS OF CMES ARE GOING TO BE
MORE GEOEFFECTIVE AS WELL. TYPE II (IMPORTANCE 3) AND IV
(IMPORTANCE 2) BURSTS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X4.9 AND M3.0 X-RAY
FLARES. ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED FROM X4.9 EVENT IS 1900 KM/S, AND
1000 KM/S +/- 200 KM/S FOR THE M3.0 FLARE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 AUG a 22 AUG
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 AUG 135 Previsto 20 AUG-22 AUG 138/140/144 Media de 90 Días 19 AUG 114
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG 015/015-025/020-015/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 AUG a 22 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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