Viewing archive of viernes, 14 agosto 1998

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 AUG 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS EVENT, AN M3/1N FROM REGION 8293 (S23W78) AT 14/0828UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A TYPE II SWEEP. REGION 8293 IS THE PROCESS OF CROSSING OVER THE WEST LIMB. ALTHOUGH ACTIVE EARLIER IN THE DAY IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE 14/1000UT. THE OTHER ACTIVE REGION HAS BEEN 8299 (N16W13). THE REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE, STILL AROUND 510 MILLIONTHS WITH A CKO BETA-GAMMA-DELTA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION SHOWED SOME PLAGE ENHANCEMENTS AND PRODUCED 2 C-CLASS EVENTS EARLY IN THE DAY. IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SINCE 14/0700UT. THE OTHER REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY STABLE AND QUIET. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: REGION 8303 (N20E52).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGION 8293 HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS FLARE BEFORE IT ROTATES OVER THE WEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 AUG a 17 AUG
Clase M30%20%20%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 AUG 137
  Previsto   15 AUG-17 AUG  135/130/125
  Media de 90 Días        14 AUG 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG  005/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  005/008-005/008-005/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 AUG a 17 AUG
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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