Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 mayo 1998

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 May 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 MAY 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS. AN M7 X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED AT 09/0340UT. A MAJOR TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP, A 210 SFU TENFLARE, AND A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) ACCOMPANIED THE FLARE. THE CME WAS NOT EARTH-DIRECTED. OLD REGION 8210, NOW A DAY AND A HALF BEYOND THE WEST LIMB, WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THE FLARE. REGION 8214 (N27W74) PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES AND SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE OR SPOT NUMBER, BUT ANALYSIS WAS DIFFICULT DUE TO LIMB PROXIMITY. REGION 8218 (S19W34) WAS STABLE. REGION 8213 (S22W89) PRODUCED AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE (VERTICAL EXTENT 0.3 SOLAR RADII) AS IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8214 AND 8218 PROVIDE A FAIR CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED THE M7 FLARE. IT BEGAN NEAR 09/0600UT AND GRADUALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLUXES WERE NEAR EVENT THRESHOLD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX WILL LIKELY REACH EVENT THRESHOLD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE TO BACKGROUND LEVEL.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 MAY a 12 MAY
Clase M50%40%20%
Clase X05%05%01%
Protón05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 MAY 111
  Previsto   10 MAY-12 MAY  110/104/100
  Media de 90 Días        09 MAY 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY  024/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY  010/010-012/010-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 MAY a 12 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%35%35%
Tormenta Menor10%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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