Viendo archivo del martes, 5 mayo 1998

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 May 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 125 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 MAY 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE DAY'S EVENTS CONSISTED OF OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C7.3 AT 1938Z. THE SOURCE FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS REGION 8214 (N27W31). THIS REGION IS GROWING AND HAS BRIGHT PLAGE WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS. OBSERVERS ARE REPORTING GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PENUMBRA IN THE INTERMEDIATE SPOTS. THE CURRENT MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS MORE COMPLEX TODAY (BETA-GAMMA) AND THE REGION IS BECOMING COMPACT. REGION 8210 (S17W60) WAS RELATIVELY CALM TODAY, SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREA, BUT WAS REPORTED TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SUBFLARES.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8214. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. REGION 8210 CONTINUES TO POSE A FAIR M-CLASS THREAT AS WELL.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITIALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FIELD BECAME DISTURBED BETWEEN 0300-0700Z, WITH MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS OBSERVED AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. FROM 0700-2100Z THE FIELD HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT THE HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM THAT BEGAN WITH THE SSC OF 04/0300Z OFFICIALLY ENDED AT 05/0900UT. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/3B/HALO CME EVENT OF 02/1342Z. THIS EVENT WAS INITIALLY SEEN AT ACE AS A STRONG SHOCK AT 04/0229Z FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF NEGATIVE BZ FROM 04/0230-0430Z. THE SOLAR WIND DATA HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSIENT FLOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, NAMELY STRONG MAGNETIC FIELDS, VARIABLE TEMPERATURES, AND VARIABLE BUT HIGH VELOCITIES. THE FLOW DOES NOT SHOW THE 'CLASSIC CLOUD' STRUCTURE, SUGGESTING THAT THE DRIVER MISSED HITTING THE EARTH DIRECTLY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO UNSETTLED TO QUIET THEREAFTER.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 MAY a 08 MAY
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 MAY 133
  Previsto   06 MAY-08 MAY  135/135/130
  Media de 90 Días        05 MAY 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAY  090/096
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY  025/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY  020/025-015/020-005/013
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 MAY a 08 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%10%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%10%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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