Viendo archivo del viernes, 1 mayo 1998

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 May 01 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 121 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 MAY 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8214 (N26E34) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT 1300 UT. REGION 8214 IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN WHITE LIGHT AND HAS BECOME MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX (BETA-GAMMA). REGION 8210 (S17W09) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, AND HAS DEVELOPED IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY INCLUDING A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. NUMEROUS SMALL RADIO BURSTS AND TYPE III SWEEPS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, BUT SATELLITE AND GROUND-BASED IMAGES IN SEVERAL WAVELENGTHS INDICATE THAT ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8194, WILL SOON APPEAR OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8210 AND 8214 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF M-CLASS OR LARGER X-RAY FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 02 MAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF AN M6/HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 29 APRIL. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 MAY a 04 MAY
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       01 MAY 113
  Previsto   02 MAY-04 MAY  120/130/140
  Media de 90 Días        01 MAY 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY  030/027-010/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 MAY a 04 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%15%05%
Tormenta Menor35%15%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%15%10%
Tormenta Menor30%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%01%

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