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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 113 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 APR 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED X1 X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 23/0555Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTED OFF THE SE-NE LIMB NOTED BY SPACE-BASED SENSORS. FURTHER ANALYSIS INDICATED THE FOOT POINTS OF THE EJECTION APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR RETURNING REGIONS 8190 (S21,L144) AND 8196 (N18,L144). BOTH REGIONS ARE LESS THAN A DAY BEHIND THE EAST LIMB. THE X-RAY BURST WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 10.7CM RADIO BURST OF 430 SFU, MAKING IT A TENFLARE, AND A TYPE IV SWEEP. POST FLARE LOOPS WERE OBSERVED AS WELL. NEW SWO REGION 8209 (S22W06), A SMALL AXX GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE RETURN OF REGION 8190, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHOCK WAS NOTED ON ALL INSTRUMENTS AT ABOUT 23/1800Z, INDICATED BY AN INCREASE IN SOLAR WIND DENSITY AND SPEED, AN INCREASE IN PARTICLES DETECTED ON ACE AND GOES, AND A SMALL IMPULSE NOTED EARTH-BASED AND GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOMETERS. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS STILL IN PROGRESS. THE EVENT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND IS CURRENTLY AT 30 PFU.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MID LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THEREAFTER, THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 APR a 26 APR
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 APR 090
  Previsto   24 APR-26 APR  092/094/094
  Media de 90 Días        23 APR 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 APR  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 APR  009/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 APR-26 APR  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 APR a 26 APR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%10%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%15%10%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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