Viendo archivo del lunes, 20 abril 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Apr 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 110 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 APR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. A LONG DURATION M1
X-RAY EVENT AND TYPE II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 20/1021UT. THE LIKELY
SOURCE FOR THE FLARE WAS BEHIND THE SW LIMB. SPACE-BASED SENSORS
INDICATE STRONG EMISSIONS ON THE LIMB ALONG S25. A LARGE CME WAS
ALSO OBSERVED OFF THE W-SW LIMB. FAINT POST FLARE LOOPS WERE ALSO
EVIDENT. REGION 8205 (N21W40) CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS, AND MAINTAINS IT'S DSO BETA CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8205 HAS SMALL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A C-CLASS
FLARE. FURTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SW LIMB IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY
AS POSSIBLE SOURCE REGION ROTATES FURTHER BEHIND THE LIMB.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 20/1130Z, PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT
20/1400Z, AND IS CURRENTLY STEADY AT A MAXIMUM OF 330 PFU. THE
GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX IS AT 2.3 PFU AND STILL RISING
SLOWLY. POLAR CAP ABSORPTION IS CURRENTLY AT A MAXIMUM OF 6.4 DB.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. MOST OF THE MATERIAL
FROM THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY APPEARS WESTWARD BOUND, THUS, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD. THE 10 AND
100 MEV PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 APR a 23 APR
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 APR 098 Previsto 21 APR-23 APR 096/094/092 Media de 90 Días 20 APR 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 APR 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR 010/010-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 APR a 23 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 11% | 11% |
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