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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 110 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 APR 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. A LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT AND TYPE II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 20/1021UT. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THE FLARE WAS BEHIND THE SW LIMB. SPACE-BASED SENSORS INDICATE STRONG EMISSIONS ON THE LIMB ALONG S25. A LARGE CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED OFF THE W-SW LIMB. FAINT POST FLARE LOOPS WERE ALSO EVIDENT. REGION 8205 (N21W40) CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND MAINTAINS IT'S DSO BETA CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8205 HAS SMALL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A C-CLASS FLARE. FURTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SW LIMB IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY AS POSSIBLE SOURCE REGION ROTATES FURTHER BEHIND THE LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 20/1130Z, PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT 20/1400Z, AND IS CURRENTLY STEADY AT A MAXIMUM OF 330 PFU. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX IS AT 2.3 PFU AND STILL RISING SLOWLY. POLAR CAP ABSORPTION IS CURRENTLY AT A MAXIMUM OF 6.4 DB.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. MOST OF THE MATERIAL FROM THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY APPEARS WESTWARD BOUND, THUS, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD. THE 10 AND 100 MEV PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 APR a 23 APR
Clase M10%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón10%05%01%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 APR 098
  Previsto   21 APR-23 APR  096/094/092
  Media de 90 Días        20 APR 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 APR  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR  010/010-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 APR a 23 APR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%30%30%
Tormenta Menor05%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%11%11%

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