Viendo archivo del viernes, 20 marzo 1998

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 079 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 MAR 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179 (S22W69) PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES, A C2.8/SF AT 20/1857Z AND A C1/SF AT 20/2030Z, PLUS A FEW VERY MINOR SUBFAINT FLARES. SEVEN UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED AS WELL. THESE MAY HAVE ORIGINATED JUST BEHIND THE SE LIMB (S26) WHERE AN ACTIVE SURGE REGION WAS VISIBLE MOST OF THE DAY AND AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ENDING AT 20/1234Z. THIS IS LIKELY THE RETURN OF REGION 8171 (S24L235), BUT NO SPOTS HAVE APPEARED ON THE LIMB YET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8179, STILL GROWING SLOWLY, HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A FAIR CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 MAR a 23 MAR
Clase M45%45%25%
Clase X10%10%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 MAR 127
  Previsto   21 MAR-23 MAR  125/118/116
  Media de 90 Días        20 MAR 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAR  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAR-23 MAR  005/012-005/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 MAR a 23 MAR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%10%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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