Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 diciembre 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Dec 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 344 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 DEC 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NUMEROUS OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED MINOR RADIO SWEEPS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT
ACTIVITY TAPERED OFF BY 10/1000UT. REGION 8119 (N33W25), AN 8 SPOT DAO
GROUP, IS THE ONLY REGION SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GROWTH BUT STILL
MAINTAINS A SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGION 8121 (N25W55),
A 3 SPOT BXO, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. ALL REMAINING REGIONS ARE SMALL
AND SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. REGION 8119 IS THE ONLY REGION POSING ANY THREAT BUT NEEDS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE C-CLASS FLARING IS LIKELY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS BUT QUICKLY
ESCALATED TO UNSETTLED AT 10/0600UT AND ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT
10/1200UT. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED SINCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS A RESULT OF THE 6 DECEMBER VERY LONG DURATION C1
FLARE AND ASSOCIATED HALO/CME.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH TOMORROW BECOMING
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE. EXPECT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON
DAY 2 AND 3.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 DEC a 13 DEC
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 DEC 095 Previsto 11 DEC-13 DEC 093/091/093 Media de 90 Días 10 DEC 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC 001/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC 020/017 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC 020/015-010/010-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 DEC a 13 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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