Viendo archivo de martes, 27 mayo 1997

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 May 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 147 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 MAY 1997

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8045 (N02W85) PRODUCED A C4/1F FLARE AT 0957UT. THIS GROUP SHOWED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AND BRIGHTNESS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES IN ADDITION TO THE 1F MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. NEW REGION 8047 (N26E70) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE, STABLE BETA SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8046 (S26E14) WAS QUIET AND APPEARS TO BE IN DECAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARE FROM REGION 8045 AS IT CROSSES THE WEST LIMB. VERY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVIAL FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 26/2100-27/0300Z. MOSTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH MINOR-MAJOR STORM PERIODS WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN 0300-0900Z. ACTIVITY ABRUPTLY CEASED AT 0900Z, AND THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE THEN. WIND DATA DID NOT SHOW AN OBVIOUS SOURCE, BUT INDICATED STEADY SOUTHWARD BZ, SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DENSITY, AND NOMINAL VELOCITIES. THUS THE SIGNATURE WOULD BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE PROPERTIES OF TRANSIENT PHENOMENA THAN WITH THOSE OF A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 MAY a 30 MAY
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 MAY 078
  Previsto   28 MAY-30 MAY  075/073/072
  Media de 90 Días        27 MAY 074
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAY  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAY  015/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAY-30 MAY  010/015-010/010-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 MAY a 30 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%05%05%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%05%05%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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