Viendo archivo del sábado, 19 octubre 1996
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1996 Oct 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 OCT 1996IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. HOWEVER, A LARGE
FILAMENT LOCATED BETWEEN S28E61-S33E80 BEGAN TO DISAPPEAR NEAR
19/1600Z. THIS FILAMENT BECAME AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AS IT
CONTINUED OUT BEYOND THE LIMB NEAR S28 TO A MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF
0.4R BEFORE FADING IN H-ALPHA. A LONG DURATION SOFT X-RAY
ENHANCEMENT BEGAN NEAR 19/1625Z AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF A6
AT 19/1738Z. THE DECAY OF THIS X-RAY EVENT CONTINUES AT ISSUE
TIME. IT IS CERTAIN THIS EVENT REPRESENTS A LARGE CORONAL MASS
EJECTION. A NEW SMALL REGION IS APPEARING AT APPROXIMATELY
N15E90 IN RECENT YOHKOH IMAGES.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE AT A VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND MINOR
STORM LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD AS THE CORONAL HOLE RELATED
DISTURBANCE CONTINUED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED
PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 20 OCT
AND EARLY 21 OCT. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF 21 OCT AND
THROUGH 22 OCT. THE PROBABLE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH DUE TO ITS MODERATELY HIGH
LATITUDE, NEAR EAST LIMB LOCATION, AND APPARENT TRAJECTORY
OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC PLANE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 OCT a 22 OCT
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 OCT 071 Previsto 20 OCT-22 OCT 071/071/071 Media de 90 Días 19 OCT 071
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT 025/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT 023/028 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT 020/025-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 OCT a 22 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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