Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 20/1951Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 579 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and quiet levels on day three (23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 069
  Predicted    21 May-23 May 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        20 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  007/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm 30%30%20%
Major-severe storm 25%25%15%

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