Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 18/1631Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/0018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 070
  Predicted    19 Dec-21 Dec 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  005/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  007/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25%20%15%
Major-severe storm 25%15%15%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2018/11/05Kp6 (G2)
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