Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Aug 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a C5/Sf flare at 21/0316 UTC from Region 2672 (N07E61, Dao/beta). The other sunspot group, Region 2671 (N11W18, Fkc/beta-gamma), produced a few B-class flares, the largest of which was a B9/Sf at 21/1103 UTC. Despite the beta-gamma magnetic signature, this region has been relatively stable and inactive. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts), for the next three days (22-24 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux of 52,000 pfu observed at 21/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remain at high to very high levels over the next three days (22-24 Aug), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters showed subsiding influences from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds generally decreased throughout the reporting period from around 700 km/s to 540 km/s, with a brief increase to near 676 km/s near the end of the period. Total field strength mainly ranged between 2 and 5 nT, with an isolated bump to 9 nT, and the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. The phi angle remained in a mostly positive orientation, with brief deflections into the negative sector midday and again late in the day.
Forecast
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for the next two days (22-23 Aug) while solar wind speeds recover to background levels in the wake of the CH HSS. Primarily nominal conditions are expected by day three (24 Aug) as solar wind parameters return to background levels.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to lingering effects from a positive polarity CH HSS.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Aug) with isolated active periods early. Day two (23 Aug) is expected to be mostly quiet with intermittent unsettled periods. By day three (23 Aug) mostly quiet conditions are expected with a return to background solar wind conditions.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
Active geomagnetic conditions expected
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (574.6 km/sec.)

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 35%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 25%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
New Moon

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