Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2018 Jul 16 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. An 8 degree long filament erupted along a NE-SW oriented channel centered at N15E44, first observed on GONG imagery at 16/0712 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (16-18 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (16-18 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through about 16/0230 UTC when a SSBC from a positive to a negative orientation occurred. After the SSBC, total field increased from about 5-6 nT to a maximum of 10 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of near -8 nT. Wind speeds remained steady at an average of about 330 km/s throughout the period.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced for the remainder of day one (16 Jul) and nominal on days two and three (17-18 Jul).

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Days two and three (17-18 Jul) should be mostly quiet as CH HSS effects diminish.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2018/07/05Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2018:104
Current stretch spotless days:20

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