Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2018 Apr 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by

Solar activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low. Region 2706 (N02E16, Cao/beta) was stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity, over the next three days (24-26 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 17,500 pfu at 23/2005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (24-26 Apr) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind speed exhibited a gradual decline from near 450 km/s to near 400 km/s by the end of period. Total field ranged from 3 to 5 nT and Bz was generally variable. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) sector early in the period then varied between sectors through the remainder of the day.
Solar wind parameters are expected to return to background levels on day one (24 Apr) and persist into day two (25 Apr). Late on day three (26 Apr) the solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced with the initial onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.


24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet over the next two days (24-25 Apr) under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated on day three (26 Apr) with the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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