Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Dec 12 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low. A B6 flare was observed at 11/0052 UTC from an unnumbered region near the east limb. Slight growth was observed in Region 2691 (S03E29, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (12-14 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a maximum flux of 765 pfu observed at 11/0340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (12-14 Dec) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a CIR preceding the arrival of a positive polarity, polar-connected, CH HSS. Total field began increasing at approximately 11/0250 UTC, reaching a maximum of 14 nT at 11/1217 UTC. The Bz component was variable between +13/-11 nT while solar wind speed reached a maximum of 515 km/s at 11/1725 UTC. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on days one and two (12-13 Dec) under the influence of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are likely to reach 500 km/s based on STEREO-A and recurrent data. A slow return to nominal levels is expected by day three (14 Dec).


24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS influence.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12-13 Dec) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (14 Dec) as HSS effects slowly wane.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (512.6 km/sec.)

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 35%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Last Quarter


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