Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Jan 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2626 (N08W69, Axx/alpha) continued to decay, becoming a simple unipolar spot. Region 2627 (N06W18, Cao/beta) exhibited decay in its leader and intermediate spots, while Region 2628 (N13W00, Eho/beta) had decay in its trailer spots. Region 2628 did experience slight growth in its overall areal coverage as it underwent separation between its leader and trailer spots. All spot groups remained mostly inactive throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (24-26 Jan) due to the flare potential from Regions 2627 and 2628.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 1,184 pfu observed at 23/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels all three days of the forecast period (24-26 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect waning CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed began the period near 460 km/s before decreasing to around 320 km/s near periods end. Total field averaged around 3 nT, but saw a peak of 7 nT. The Bz component mainly ranged between +/-3 nT, but saw a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector, with isolated oscillations into a negative (towards) sector throughout the period.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at mostly nominal levels over the next three days (24-26 Jan) as CH HSS influence subsides.


24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels during the forecast period (24-26 Jan) under a nominal, background solar wind regime.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 10%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 5%
X-class solar flare 1%
B1.9 B5.2 B2.6


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Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2016/11/29M1.2
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