Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Mar 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low and Region 2643 (N08E16, Axx/alpha) exhibited minor decay this period. A new sunspot near N13E48 (at 25/1900 UTC) developed this period but was not numbered at the time of this writing. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels throughout the forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 8,820 pfu observed at 25/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels until late on day one (26 Mar) when an increase in geomagnetic field activity is expected to cause a decrease to normal to moderate levels for days two and three (27-28 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 530 km/s to end-of-period values near 450-475 km/s. Total field strength values were steady near 2-3 nT and the southward component of the IMF remained between +2/-1 nT. The phi angle was steady in a positive solar sector orientation until around 25/1430 UTC when it became variable.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on day one through day three (26-28 Mar) due to the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Recurrence and STEREO-A data suggest solar wind speeds in the 650-700 km/s range are likely during the passage of this feature.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a background solar wind environment.
Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Mar), unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day two (27 Mar), and active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on day three (28 Mar). The anticipated increase in elevated geomagnetic field activity is associated with the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a recurrent, polar-connected, negative polarity CH HSS.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
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Middle latitude 10% 5%
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M-class solar flare 1%
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