Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Feb 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was at very low levels this period. Region 2636 (N11W06) decayed into plage and minor decay was also observed in Region 2637 (S04E53, Axx/alpha). New Region 2638 (N17E63, Dao/beta) was numbered this period but appears to be comprised of two separate regions, however, the proximity to the NE limb made analysis difficult. Two episodes of coronal dimming were observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery this period. The first episode began at around 20/0030 UTC and was centered near N08E30 and the second episode was observed beginning at around 20/0500 UTC and was centered near N05E06. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (20-22 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (20-22 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total interplanetary field strength values were steady at around 5 nT and the southward component remained near 0 nT throughout the period. Solar wind speeds briefly peak at around 605 km/s early in the period but were generally steady between 525-575 km/s throughout the remainder of the period.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced over the next three days (20-22 Feb) due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20-21 Feb) with quiet to active levels likely on day three (22 Feb) due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 20%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
B4.5 B3.7 B5.4

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

14%

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2016/11/29M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm:2017/02/01Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017:11
Last spotless day:2017/02/08

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002M5.1
22002M4.3
32002M4.2
42002M3.5
52014M3.0
ApG
1201437G2
2201220G1
3200619G1
4200317
5199417G1
*since 1994