Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Oct 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity remained very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels the next three days (17-19 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels all three days (17-19 Oct) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect weakening influence of a CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 2-4 nT; no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from speeds near 530 km/s to near 460 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly positive.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated early on day one (17 Oct) with decreasing strength of the CH HSS. Solar wind parameters are likely to undergo an additional enhancement late on day two and three (18-19 Oct)as a second positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels on day one (17 Oct) as CH HSS effects continue to wane. Active conditions are likely to return late on days two and three (18-19 Oct) due to the onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waning Crescent

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