Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2018 Feb 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by

Solar activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be very low during the forecast period (18-20 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels due to influence from CH HSS effects. A peak flux of 116 pfu was observed at 17/2145 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the forecast period (18-20 Feb) due to elevated wind speeds associated with the recent CH HSS feature. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters indicated persistent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed began near 460 km/s and ended the period at approximately 605 km/s. Total field achieved a maximum value of 9 nT while the Bz component dropped as low as -5 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately negative sector.
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced throughout the forecast period (18-20 Feb) due to CH HSS influence.


24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions under negative polarity CH HSS influence.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (18 Feb, 20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Feb) due to persistent CH HSS influence.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (593.3 km/sec.)

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 30%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waxing Crescent


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Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2018/01/14Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2018:18
Current stretch spotless days:1

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