Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2020 Feb 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 22-24 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 2,852 pfu at 21/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 22-24 Feb due to elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters reflected continued influence from the negative polarity, southern extension coronal hole. Solar wind speeds ranged between 450 and 540 km/s. Total field peaked at 8 nT while the Bz component reached negative value of -6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.
Forecast
The solar wind environment is expected to continue at elevated levels on 22 Feb as the CH HSS influence persists. Nominal conditions are likely to return on 23 Feb and continue into 24 Feb.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to CH HSS influence.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 22 Feb under continued CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are likely on 23-24 Feb as CH HSS effects subside.

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Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2020/02/19Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2020:36
Current stretch spotless days:21

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