3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Apr 16 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 16-Apr 18 2024 is 4 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Apr 16       Apr 17       Apr 18
00-03UT       3.33         2.00         4.00     
03-06UT       3.67         2.00         3.67     
06-09UT       3.33         2.00         4.00     
09-12UT       3.33         3.00         3.00     
12-15UT       3.00         3.00         1.67     
15-18UT       3.33         3.00         2.00     
18-21UT       3.00         4.00         2.33     
21-00UT       3.67         4.00         2.00     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 16-Apr 18 2024

              Apr 16  Apr 17  Apr 18
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 15 2024 1932 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 16-Apr 18 2024

              Apr 16        Apr 17        Apr 18
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely all three days.