Tuesday, 21 October 2014 - 21:07 UTC
Sunspot region 2192 reached a size of 2400 millionths today according to the NOAA SWPC making it the largest sunspot region of this solar cycle and the largest sunspot group since sunspot region 486 which was the source of several strong solar storms almost 11 years ago. Sunspot region 2192 has been producing several M-class solar flares since our last update but only one of those M-class solar flares occurred today. It was an impulsive M1.2 (R1-minor) solar flare that peaked at 13:38 UTC. None of the solar flares mentioned have produced a coronal mass ejection. In this news article we take a look at sunspot region 2192 and the current geomagnetic conditions.
All the other sunspot regions on the disk are unremarkable. Any future solar flares will very likely be centered around sunspot region 2192 which is now rotating into a better earth-facing position.
Images: NASA SDO.
M-class flare probability: 60% chance
X-class flare probability: 10% chance
We can write pretty much the same here as yesterday as geomagnetic conditions remain elevated thanks to continuing coronal hole effects. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions were reached last night (UTC time) which sparked aurora over many high latitude locations in Europe. This stunning image below was captured last evening by Gibfoto from Tromsø, Norway.
The solar wind speed remains well elevated near 600km/s with a variable IMF direction. Active (Kp4) geomagnetic conditions remain possible. Sky watchers in Scotland, Norway, large parts of Sweden, Finland and those near the US-Canadian border should remain alert for aurora as coronal hole effects continue to influence space weather near Earth.
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