Monday, 5 December 2016 - 20:41 UTC
Sunspot region 2615 never really got going again after the two M-class events on 29 November. The sunspot region grew in size the past few days but never regained the magnetic complexity needed for M-class events. A shame as a nice earth-directed coronal mass ejection would have been very welcome during these quiet times. That means we shift our attention to coronal holes once more and guess what... we have a large coronal hole facing our planet today!
Our automated coronal hole detection system detected the coronal hole and sent a tweet to our Twitter account @_spaceweather_ this morning:
As you can see it is a very large northward extension of the southern hemisphere polar coronal hole. It is indeed a pretty large opening that extends all the way to the solar equator so we should see a very decent solar wind stream impact at our planet in 2 to 3 days (7 or 8 December) from now. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions are likely and an isolated period where we reach moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions should not be excluded.
|Predicted Kp max||4|
|M-class solar flare||25%|
|X-class solar flare||1%|
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|Last geomagnetic storm:||2017/08/20||Kp5 (G1)|
|Number of spotless days in 2017:||56|
|Last spotless day:||2017/08/01|