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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/0301Z from Region 3571 (S17E49). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 02/0626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 247 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Feb 143
  Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        02 Feb 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Feb  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  006/005-012/014-017/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%40%
Minor storm01%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%50%60%

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