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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 31/0829Z from Region 3567 (N19E54). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 30/2131Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 31/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 136
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%25%

All times in UTC

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