Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 January 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C2.7 at 13/0421 UTC from a region just beyond the ENE limb. Region 3541 (S22W33, Dao/beta-delta) exhibited some consolidation and formed a weak delta configuration. The other 12 spotted regions only had minor changes throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 13/0056Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1949Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Jan, 16 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFNA
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 185
  Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 185/190/190
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  007/008-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%25%
Major-severe storm25%15%20%

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