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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 07/0756Z from Region 3536 (N05W20). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 07/0012Z, although that value is suspect. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 07/0210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Jan, 09 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M45%45%45%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 167
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  007/010-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%20%
Major-severe storm40%10%15%

All times in UTC

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