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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 06/1535Z from Region 3538 (N21W28). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 05/2129Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 06/0030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jan 159
  Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        06 Jan 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jan   NA/ NA
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  008/008-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%15%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm25%40%10%

All times in UTC

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