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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/0809Z from Region 3534 (S15W61). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 05/1209Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25 pfu at 05/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 153
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  006/005-008/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm15%25%40%

All times in UTC

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