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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 10/0353Z from Region 3511 (S23W71). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (11 Dec, 12 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 10/0708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 839 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (11 Dec, 12 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
Class M55%55%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Dec 127
  Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 125/120/118
  90 Day Mean        10 Dec 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  011/012-011/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%20%

All times in UTC

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