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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/0903Z from Region 3492 (N18E64). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 353 km/s at 20/0140Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 20/1002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0645Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 449 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 157
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 146

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  010/012-012/014-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%30%15%

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