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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1450Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 24/1840Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 24/1759Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Oct 121
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%25%

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