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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 10/2116Z from Region 3323 (S08W61). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 11/1950Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 11/0304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Jun, 13 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jun 154
  Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun 155/157/153
  90 Day Mean        11 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  012/012-010/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%25%10%

All times in UTC

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