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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/1851Z from Region 3327 (S15W13). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 10/2038Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/0927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jun 161
  Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 157/160/157
  90 Day Mean        10 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  008/012-012/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%25%25%

All times in UTC

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