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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 29/1829Z from Region 3315 (S16W34). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 28/2224Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1632Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 May) and quiet levels on day three (01 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 May 154
  Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 150/140/135
  90 Day Mean        29 May 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 May  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%15%

All times in UTC

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