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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 13/0045Z from Region 3296 (N15W89). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 12/2201Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 13/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 13/1950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 361 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 May), quiet levels on day two (15 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 144
  Predicted   14 May-16 May 145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        13 May 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  015/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  008/008-005/005-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%15%20%

All times in UTC

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