Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 February 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 27/1800Z from Region 2804 (N21W74). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar) and expected to be very low on day three (02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 26/2206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1628 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Feb 079
  Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 080/078/074
  90 Day Mean        27 Feb 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  006/005-010/012-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%25%40%
Minor storm01%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%40%60%

All times in UTC

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